Our model calls every upcoming UFC main-card fight, then shows its work:
win probability against the betting line, how the fight likely ends, and the tale of the tape.
95
Fights called
9
Value picks
26
Strong calls
Our track record
28-7
Record
80%
Hit rate
82%
The books
0.143
Brier (lower=better)
Across 35 graded picks · value picks 7-1. Auto-graded from results.
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
Aug 8
★ Main Event · Lightweightslight
MG
Mateusz Gamrot
26-4-0
vs
QS
Quillan Salkilld
12-1-0
OSM Pick
We're aligned with the market: Quillan Salkilld.
Quillan Salkilld60%
The books give Quillan Salkilld ~56% | = their line+3.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Quillan Salkilld ~62%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
Line: Mateusz Gamrot +122 · Quillan Salkilld -141
With very limited information available, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. The betting line favors Salkilld, and his first main event could either be a huge motivator or a source of pressure. Gamrot's reported connection to Poirier is an interesting, albeit intangible, factor.
The books call this close. We lean Diego Ferreira.
Diego Ferreira51%
The books give Diego Ferreira ~61% | = their line-9.3 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Diego Ferreira ~55%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
74"
Reach
70"
5' 9"
Height
5' 10"
41
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Diego Ferreira -163 · Billy Quarantillo +147
Movement · -12pp on Diego Ferreira since 2026-08-06
This is a tough fight to call given Ferreira's recent skid and Quarantillo's move up in weight. While Ferreira has a clear grappling advantage, the weight class jump for Quarantillo and Ferreira's age and recent durability concerns make this a close one. I lean slightly towards Quarantillo due to his momentum and Ferreira's recent struggles, despite the betting line.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Darren Elkins.
Darren Elkins53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Darren Elkins ~44% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 25% Sub 35% Dec 40%
71"
Reach
69"
5' 10"
Height
5' 9"
42
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Darren Elkins, despite his age, brings a wealth of experience and a proven grinding style to this matchup. His relentless wrestling and grappling pressure are likely to be a significant factor against the lesser-known Yadier del Valle. While Del Valle's youth and southpaw stance could present some challenges, Elkins' veteran savvy and durability should see him through.
The books give Alexia Thainara ~69% | = their line+3.7 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Alexia Thainara ~61%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
65"
Reach
67"
5' 4"
Height
5' 4"
39
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Amanda Lemos +215 · Alexia Thainara -250
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Alexia Thainara enters this bout as the clear favorite, largely due to her youth and reach advantage, which are crucial physical attributes. While Amanda Lemos possesses significant power, Thainara's stylistic approach, combined with the market's strong lean, suggests she'll be able to control the distance and pace. This fight is likely to be a competitive striking affair where Thainara's advantag
The books give Ty Miller ~77% | = their line+2.1 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Ty Miller ~57%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 15% Dec 40%
72"
Reach
77"
5' 10"
Height
6' 2"
28
Age
26
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Billy Ray Goff +321 · Ty Miller -389
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Ty Miller holds significant physical advantages, particularly in reach, which he explicitly plans to leverage. This, combined with the strong betting odds against Goff, suggests Miller is poised to control the distance and dictate the fight's pace. Goff will need to find a way to close the distance effectively and negate Miller's length to have a chance.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Anthony Wint.
Anthony Wint51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 20% Dec 45%
—
Reach
74"
6' 0"
Height
5' 10"
30
Age
28
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available, this fight is a complete toss-up. The only discernible advantage is Anthony Wint's slight height advantage. Without any record, style, or recent activity data, it's impossible to make a confident prediction.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Fabrizio Escarrega.
Fabrizio Escarrega52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
72"
Reach
—
5' 9"
Height
6' 1"
25
Age
28
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both fighters, this is a tough one to call. Escarrega holds a notable height advantage, which could play a role in range management. However, without knowing their fighting styles or recent performances, it's difficult to predict how this fight will unfold.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Bilal Hasan.
Bilal Hasan52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
71"
Reach
68.5"
5' 7"
Height
5' 6"
25
Age
29
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available, this fight is largely a toss-up. Bilal Hasan holds a slight physical edge in reach and height, which could be a factor in a close contest. However, without any data on their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing abilities, it's impossible to make a strong prediction.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Tom Pagliarulo.
Tom Pagliarulo55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
—
Reach
70.5"
6' 0"
Height
5' 5"
29
Age
27
--
Stance
Switch
With very limited information available, the most significant factor is Tom Pagliarulo's substantial height advantage. This could allow him to control distance and land strikes from range. However, without knowing anything about their styles or past performances, it's difficult to make a confident prediction.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Joe Kropschot.
Joe Kropschot51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 20% Dec 45%
—
Reach
77"
6' 2"
Height
6' 0"
31
Age
27
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both fighters, this is a difficult fight to predict. Kunneman's significant reach advantage could be a factor, but without knowing Kropschot's actual reach or either fighter's style, it's hard to lean definitively. This fight is essentially a coin flip based on current data.
The books give Islam Makhachev ~76% | = their line+1.3 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Islam Makhachev ~51%
How it endsMost likely: R3
KO/TKO 30% Sub 50% Dec 20%
70.5"
Reach
74.5"
5' 10"
Height
6' 3"
34
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Islam Makhachev -360 · Ian Machado Garry +303
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Islam Makhachev is a dominant champion with an elite grappling game that will be a significant challenge for Ian Garry. While Garry possesses a reach advantage and striking prowess, Makhachev's ability to control the fight on the ground and his championship experience make him a strong favorite. Expect Makhachev to eventually find a submission or ground and pound finish.
form →Makhachevstyle →Makhachevcontext →Makhachevfinishing →Makhachevphysical →Garrysentiment →Makhachev
Mackenzie Dern's elite jiu-jitsu is the clear difference-maker in this matchup. While Gillian Robertson is a capable grappler herself, she's unlikely to be able to contend with Dern on the mat. Dern's improved striking should allow her to close the distance and secure takedowns, leading to a submission victory.
We're aligned with the market: Mansur Abdul-Malik.
Mansur Abdul-Malik83%
The books give Mansur Abdul-Malik ~82% | = their line+1.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Mansur Abdul-Malik ~62%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
75"
Reach
79.5"
6' 0"
Height
6' 2"
34
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Dustin Stoltzfus +420 · Mansur Abdul-Malik -550
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Mansur Abdul-Malik enters this fight as a significant favorite, largely due to his undefeated record and strong grappling pedigree. His physical advantages and finishing threat, particularly on the ground, present a difficult challenge for Dustin Stoltzfus, who has struggled to find consistent success in the UFC. While Stoltzfus has more big-show experience, Abdul-Malik's momentum and stylistic st
form →Abdul-Malikstyle →Abdul-Malikphysical →Abdul-Malikfinishing →Abdul-Maliksentiment →Abdul-Malik
The books give Esteban Ribovics ~77% | = their line+2.9 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Esteban Ribovics ~62%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
75"
Reach
69"
5' 11"
Height
5' 10"
40
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Edson Barboza +325 · Esteban Ribovics -395
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Despite Barboza's legendary striking and experience, Ribovics' youth, aggression, and momentum make him a strong favorite. Ribovics' high-volume attack and developing grappling could exploit Barboza's recent vulnerabilities, especially given the age difference. While Barboza always carries a knockout threat, the younger fighter's pace and durability are likely to be the deciding factors.
form →Ribovicsfinishing →Ribovicsstyle →Ribovicscontext →Barbozasentiment →Ribovicsphysical →Barboza
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Joel Álvarez.
Joel Álvarez57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Joel Álvarez ~61% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
80"
Reach
77"
6' 3"
Height
6' 3"
37
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chidi Njokuani enters this fight with a notable advantage due to Joel Álvarez taking the bout on extremely short notice. While Álvarez is a dangerous submission artist, the lack of a full camp will severely hinder his preparation. Njokuani's reach advantage and likely better preparation should allow him to control the distance and capitalize on any openings.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Namo Fazil.
Namo Fazil51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 20% Dec 45%
72.5"
Reach
—
5' 11"
Height
6' 0"
29
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
--
With very limited information available, this fight is a complete toss-up. The only discernible factor is Namo Fazil's move down a weight class, which could be a difficult cut and potentially impact his performance. Kaik Brito holds a slight reach advantage, but without knowing anything about their styles or recent performances, it's impossible to make a confident prediction.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Douglas Rodrigues.
Douglas Rodrigues51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
72"
Reach
—
5' 11"
Height
6' 1"
30
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both Trent Miller and Douglas Rodrigues, this fight is a complete toss-up. The physical attributes show Rodrigues as slightly taller and younger, but Miller has a stated reach advantage. Without any insight into their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing capabilities, it's impossible to lean definitively towards either fighter.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Logan Paxton.
Logan Paxton50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
—
Reach
72"
5' 10"
Height
5' 9"
30
Age
26
--
Stance
Orthodox
With extremely limited information available for both fighters, it's impossible to make a confident prediction. The physical stats show minor differences, but without reach for Paxton or any stylistic or record data, this fight is a complete unknown. Any outcome is equally plausible.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mahamed Aly.
Mahamed Aly51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mahamed Aly ~50% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
77.5"
Reach
78"
6' 2"
Height
6' 3"
29
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information available for both fighters, this is a difficult fight to predict. The physical attributes are very close, with Mahamed Aly holding a slight edge in height and reach. Without knowing their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing capabilities, any prediction would be highly speculative.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Roman Puga.
Roman Puga50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
71"
Reach
—
5' 8"
Height
5' 9"
29
Age
31
--
Stance
--
With virtually no information available on either fighter's record, style, or recent performances, this fight is a complete toss-up. The physical dimensions are very similar, offering no clear advantage. Without any data points, a confident prediction is impossible.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Anthony Hernandez.
Anthony Hernandez62%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Anthony Hernandez ~55% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
75"
Reach
75"
6' 0"
Height
6' 3"
32
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
📊 OSM is 8-5 on lean calls
Anthony Hernandez's relentless grappling pressure and submission prowess give him a distinct advantage in this matchup. While Gregory Rodrigues possesses significant striking power, Hernandez's ability to close distance and secure takedowns will likely dictate the pace and location of the fight, potentially leading to a submission victory. Rodrigues' past TKO losses also highlight a vulnerability
form →Hernandezfinishing →Hernandezstyle →Hernandezphysical →Rodrigues
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Vitor Petrino.
Vitor Petrino61%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Vitor Petrino ~62% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 20% Dec 40%
78"
Reach
77.5"
6' 3"
Height
6' 2"
31
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
This is a tough fight to call with limited information. While Spivac holds slight physical advantages in height and reach, there's no recent coverage to assess current form, stylistic matchups, or finishing threats. Without more data, this fight appears to be a coin flip on paper.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Reinier de Ridder.
Reinier de Ridder61%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Reinier de Ridder ~56% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
76"
Reach
78"
6' 2"
Height
6' 4"
37
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
This is an intriguing matchup between two skilled middleweights. While Dolidze possesses significant power and a grappling background, de Ridder's elite-level grappling and extensive championship experience give him a slight edge. De Ridder's ability to control the fight on the ground will likely be the deciding factor.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Jeisla Chaves.
Jeisla Chaves52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Jeisla Chaves ~53% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
68"
Reach
68"
5' 7"
Height
5' 6"
27
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information available for both fighters, this prediction relies heavily on the minimal physical advantages. Carli Judice holds a slight edge in height and is younger, which could translate to better athleticism or a longer career arc. However, without any insight into their fighting styles, recent performances, or finishing capabilities, this is largely a speculative pick.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Shamil Gaziev.
Shamil Gaziev52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Shamil Gaziev ~56% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 5% Dec 40%
83"
Reach
78.5"
6' 5"
Height
6' 4"
34
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kennedy Nzechukwu holds a notable reach advantage and southpaw stance, which could be key in controlling the distance against the orthodox Shamil Gaziev. While Gaziev is undefeated and a proven finisher, Nzechukwu's physical attributes and experience against higher-level competition give him a slight edge. This fight is likely to be a striking affair where Nzechukwu's length could be the deciding
The books give Umar Nurmagomedov ~79% | = their line+1.9 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Umar Nurmagomedov ~59%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 20% Sub 45% Dec 35%
67"
Reach
69"
5' 8"
Height
5' 8"
28
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Song Yadong +350 · Umar Nurmagomedov -450
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Umar Nurmagomedov enters this fight as a significant favorite due to his undefeated record and elite grappling. His Dagestani wrestling background presents a tough stylistic challenge for Song Yadong, who, while a dangerous striker, will likely struggle to defend the takedowns and control. Umar's ability to dictate where the fight takes place should lead him to a dominant victory.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Yan Xiaonan.
Yan Xiaonan55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Yan Xiaonan ~46% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 25% Sub 5% Dec 70%
63"
Reach
63"
5' 5"
Height
5' 2"
37
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Yan Xiaonan's technical striking and significant height advantage should allow her to control the range and outpoint Denise Gomes. While Gomes possesses power, Yan's experience against higher-level competition and her ability to maintain distance will likely lead her to a decision victory.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Kai Asakura.
Kai Asakura57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kai Asakura ~45% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
69"
Reach
69"
5' 8"
Height
5' 7"
32
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kai Asakura enters this fight with a slight edge due to his higher-level experience and more dynamic striking. While Aoriqileng is a tough and relentless brawler, Asakura's technical prowess and finishing ability against better competition should allow him to control the pace and land significant strikes. Expect Asakura to find openings as the fight progresses.
form →Asakurafinishing →Asakurastyle →Asakuracontext →Asakuraphysical →Asakurasentiment →Asakura
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Sumudaerji.
Sumudaerji56%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Sumudaerji ~55% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 25% Dec 45%
65.5"
Reach
72"
5' 6"
Height
5' 8"
34
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
This flyweight bout presents an interesting clash of styles. While Sumudaerji holds a significant physical advantage in reach and height, Alex Perez's wrestling and experience against top-tier opponents could be the deciding factor. Perez will likely look to close the distance and utilize his grappling to neutralize Sumudaerji's striking.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Ce Liu.
Ce Liu51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
75"
Reach
77.5"
6' 3"
Height
6' 5"
29
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
--
With extremely limited information available for both Junior Tafa and Ce Liu, it's impossible to make a confident prediction. The physical attributes are very similar, with Ce Liu holding a slight edge in height and reach. Without any data on their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing capabilities, this fight is a complete toss-up.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Dan Hooker.
Dan Hooker53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
75"
Reach
73"
6' 0"
Height
5' 10"
36
Age
28
Switch
Stance
--
This is a tough fight to call without more information on recent performances and specific stylistic breakdowns. While Hooker holds slight physical advantages in height and reach, Parnasse is a highly-touted prospect. The lack of recent coverage makes a confident prediction difficult.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Michael Page.
Michael Page54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Michael Page ~51% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
79"
Reach
76"
6' 3"
Height
6' 5"
39
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
This is an intriguing stylistic clash between two dangerous finishers. Page's unique striking and reach advantage will be key, but Ruziboev's size, youth, and aggressive finishing ability, particularly his grappling, cannot be underestimated. The weight class jump for Page is a concern against a naturally larger opponent.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mario Pinto.
Mario Pinto64%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mario Pinto ~64% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
79"
Reach
79"
6' 5"
Height
6' 5"
34
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
📊 OSM is 8-5 on lean calls
With virtually no information available for either fighter beyond basic physicals, this fight is a complete unknown. The identical physical dimensions and lack of any stylistic or form data make it impossible to lean one way or the other. This is a true coin flip based on current knowledge.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mairon Santos.
Mairon Santos53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mairon Santos ~51% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
69"
Reach
72"
5' 6"
Height
5' 7"
33
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With no recent coverage or detailed fight history, this is a difficult fight to predict. Santos holds a slight physical advantage in height and reach, which could be a factor. Without more information on their fighting styles or recent performances, it's impossible to lean definitively.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Kurtis Campbell.
Kurtis Campbell54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kurtis Campbell ~49% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
70"
Reach
72"
5' 9"
Height
5' 9"
31
Age
23
Switch
Stance
Switch
This fight is extremely difficult to predict with the limited information available. The most significant factor is Trevor Peek's move down to Featherweight from Lightweight, which is a substantial cut and could impact his performance. Kurtis Campbell also holds a reach advantage and is considerably younger, which could play a role.
The books give Jean Silva ~75% | = their line+4.1 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Jean Silva ~65%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 10% Dec 40%
Line: Yair Rodriguez +280 · Jean Silva -350
Movement · 8pp on Jean Silva since 2026-08-06
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Jean Silva enters this fight with significant momentum and a reputation as a dangerous finisher, headlining a Noche UFC event. While Yair Rodriguez is making a return, the coverage heavily favors Silva's current form and finishing threat. The betting line also reflects a strong lean towards Silva.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Joseph Morales.
Joseph Morales54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Joseph Morales ~54% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
70"
Reach
68"
5' 7"
Height
5' 6"
32
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
With very limited information available, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. Moreno holds a slight physical edge in reach and height, which could be a minor factor in a close fight. However, without any data on recent form, fighting styles, or finishing capabilities, this fight is essentially a coin flip on paper.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Manon Fiorot.
Manon Fiorot59%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Manon Fiorot ~56% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
66"
Reach
65"
5' 5"
Height
5' 7"
32
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
This is a very close matchup between two elite flyweights. While Fiorot's striking volume and physical attributes might give her a slight edge in a pure stand-up battle, Grasso's championship experience and proven grappling threat cannot be underestimated. The fight will likely come down to who can impose their game plan more effectively.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Waldo Cortes Acosta.
Waldo Cortes Acosta51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Waldo Cortes Acosta ~63% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
80"
Reach
78"
6' 4"
Height
6' 4"
35
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Curtis Blaydes presents a significant stylistic nightmare for Waldo Cortes Acosta with his elite wrestling and ground control. While Acosta has shown good striking, his takedown defense will be severely tested against 'Razor' Blaydes, who has a clear path to victory on the mat. Blaydes' experience against higher-level competition further solidifies his advantage in this matchup.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Dan Ige.
Dan Ige51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Dan Ige ~39% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
71"
Reach
66"
5' 7"
Height
5' 5"
35
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dan Ige holds significant physical advantages, particularly in reach and the fact that Martinez is moving up a weight class. Ige's experience against higher-level competition and his well-rounded skill set should allow him to control the fight. Martinez will likely struggle to close the distance and deal with Ige's power and grappling.
The books like Alexandre Pantoja. Our model likes Alexandre Pantoja even more.
Alexandre Pantoja59%
The books give Alexandre Pantoja ~51% | = their line+8.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Alexandre Pantoja ~50%
How it endsMost likely: R3
KO/TKO 30% Sub 40% Dec 30%
67.5"
Reach
65"
5' 5"
Height
5' 5"
36
Age
24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Alexandre Pantoja -110 · Joshua Van -103
Alexandre Pantoja enters this rematch as the clear favorite, having already defeated Joshua Van and holding the championship belt. His well-rounded skillset, particularly his grappling and relentless pressure, proved too much for Van in their first encounter. Expect Pantoja to leverage his experience and championship pedigree to defend his title once again.
form →Pantojastyle →Pantojafinishing →Pantojacontext →Pantojaphysical →Pantojasentiment →Pantoja
The books give Arman Tsarukyan ~75% | = their line+2.4 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Arman Tsarukyan ~56%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 35% Sub 30% Dec 35%
72.5"
Reach
75"
5' 7"
Height
5' 11"
29
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Arman Tsarukyan -360 · Mauricio Ruffy +285
Movement · +10pp on Arman Tsarukyan since 2026-08-06
📊 OSM is 20-2 on strong calls
Arman Tsarukyan is a significant favorite for good reason. His elite wrestling and grappling, combined with his experience against top-tier opponents, give him a clear path to victory over Mauricio Ruffy. While Ruffy possesses physical advantages and striking power, Tsarukyan's ability to control the fight's location will likely negate these threats.
form →Tsarukyanstyle →Tsarukyancontext →Tsarukyanfinishing →Tsarukyansentiment →Tsarukyanphysical →Ruffy
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Dooho Choi.
Dooho Choi52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Dooho Choi ~64% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 50% Sub 20% Dec 30%
67"
Reach
70"
5' 6"
Height
5' 10"
39
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Patricio Pitbull enters this fight with significant advantages in form, activity, and overall experience against top-tier competition. While Dooho Choi possesses a dangerous striking game and physical advantages, his prolonged inactivity and recent losing streak are major red flags. Pitbull's well-rounded skillset and proven durability should allow him to navigate Choi's striking and find a finish
form →Pitbullactivity →Pitbullfinishing →Pitbullstyle →Pitbullcontext →Pitbullphysical →Choisentiment →Pitbull
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Renato Moicano.
Renato Moicano71%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Renato Moicano ~62% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 35% Sub 30% Dec 35%
72"
Reach
69"
5' 11"
Height
5' 8"
37
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
📊 OSM is 8-5 on lean calls
Renato Moicano holds a significant physical advantage in height and reach, which will be crucial in keeping the fight where he wants it. While Brian Ortega's submission game is elite, the move up to lightweight and the size disparity against a well-rounded fighter like Moicano presents a tough challenge. Moicano's ability to mix his striking and grappling, coupled with his physical attributes, giv
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Iwo Baraniewski.
Iwo Baraniewski54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Iwo Baraniewski ~57% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
76"
Reach
73.5"
6' 0"
Height
6' 0"
38
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information available, this fight is a tough one to call. Menifield's reach advantage is the only clear physical edge, but Baraniewski's youth could be a factor. Without knowing their styles, recent form, or finishing abilities, it's impossible to make a confident prediction.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mike Malott.
Mike Malott55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mike Malott ~57% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
73"
Reach
76"
6' 1"
Height
5' 10"
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
This fight presents an intriguing stylistic clash at Welterweight. While Malott has a height advantage, Buckley's significant reach advantage and southpaw stance could allow him to control the distance and land his powerful strikes. The fight likely comes down to whether Malott can close the distance and utilize his grappling or if Buckley can keep it standing and find a knockout blow.
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Erin Blanchfield.
Erin Blanchfield61%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Erin Blanchfield ~49% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 20% Sub 50% Dec 30%
66"
Reach
68"
5' 4"
Height
5' 7"
27
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Erin Blanchfield enters this fight with significant momentum, boasting an undefeated UFC record and a reputation as an elite grappler. Her youth and finishing ability, particularly on the ground, give her a clear edge over the older and less dynamic Jasmine Jasudavicius. While Jasudavicius is durable, Blanchfield's relentless pressure and superior jiu-jitsu should lead to a dominant performance.
form →Blanchfieldstyle →Blanchfieldfinishing →Blanchfieldphysical →Blanchfieldcontext →Blanchfieldsentiment →Blanchfield
No betting line posted yet — our model leans Mandel Nallo.
Mandel Nallo53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mandel Nallo ~49% — sets our baseline (no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 10% Dec 50%
72"
Reach
75"
5' 9"
Height
6' 0"
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mandel Nallo holds a significant physical advantage in height and reach, which could be a major factor against Nate Landwehr's aggressive, brawling style. Landwehr also moving up a weight class to Lightweight adds another layer of challenge. While Landwehr's grit is undeniable, Nallo's physical attributes and potential for a more technical striking approach give him an edge.
We treat the betting line as the starting point — the crowd already prices most of the signal — then adjust it with
seven scouting factors (form, style, physical, finishing, activity, context, sentiment), each grounded in the real
tale of the tape and weighted by how confident we are it matters here. We cap how far we can drift from the market,
so a pick is never a wild swing. When our number meaningfully beats the line, we flag it a value pick.
For upcoming UFC cards we call the whole main card, even before the books post a line.
Every pick is logged and auto-graded against the result, so the record above is honest, fight by fight, including how we stack up against the betting line.
Picks updated 2026-08-07T11:02:56Z.
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