Our track record
0.174
Brier (lower=better)
Across 108 graded picks · value picks 13-2. Auto-graded from results.
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Sep 26★ Main Event · Bantamweightlean
RB
22-5-0
vs
RR
12-1-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Raul Rosas Jr..
Raul Rosas Jr.66%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Raul Rosas Jr. ~54% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
67"
Reach
67"
5' 7"
Height
5' 9"
39
Age
21
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
📊 OSM is 27-17 on lean calls
Raul Rosas Jr. enters this fight with a significant youth advantage and a grappling-heavy style that could exploit Raoni Barcelos' recent struggles. While Barcelos has experience, his age and recent form suggest a decline.
physical → Jr.style → Jr.finishing → Jr.form → Jr.context → Jr.sentiment → Jr.
Co-Main · Middleweightpick'em
RB
18-7-0
vs
RV
11-5-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Rodolfo Vieira.
Rodolfo Vieira55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Rodolfo Vieira ~55% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 30% Dec 35%
75"
Reach
73"
6' 0"
Height
6' 0"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With no recent coverage for either fighter, this is a tough fight to call. Bryczek's slight reach advantage could be a factor if the fight stays standing, but without knowing his defensive grappling or Vieira's current form, it's difficult to predict how that plays out. This fight is a true toss-up based on the limited information.
Bantamweightpick'em
IA
10-3-0
OSM Pick
vs
MO
12-1-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu.
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
5' 7"
Height
5' 9"
22
Age
22
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both fighters, this is a difficult fight to predict. Without knowing their fighting styles, records, or recent performances, any strong lean would be speculative.
W Strawweightpick'em
TB
15-4-0
vs
MA
8-0-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Melissa Amaya.
Melissa Amaya51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
63"
Reach
64"
5' 4"
Height
5' 4"
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both Tina Black and Melissa Amaya, this fight is extremely difficult to predict. The only discernible physical difference is Amaya's slight reach advantage. Without any data on their fighting styles, recent performances, or finishing capabilities, any prediction would be pure speculation.
Bantamweightpick'em
BH
9-2-0
OSM Pick
vs
RN
10-1-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Brady Hiestand.
Brady Hiestand52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Brady Hiestand ~52% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
71"
Reach
68.5"
5' 8"
Height
5' 7"
27
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
This fight pits two strong grapplers against each other, with Nakamura's elite wrestling background giving him a potential edge in control and finishing ability. Hiestand possesses a reach advantage that could be key if he can keep the fight standing.
physical → Hiestandfinishing → Nakamurastyle → Nakamura
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8
Sep 29★ Main Event · Lightweightpick'em
GS
0-0-0
OSM Pick
vs
LA
7-1-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans George Staines.
George Staines50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
6' 1"
Height
6' 4"
26
Age
30
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both George Staines and Loai Abushaar, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. Without details on their fighting styles, recent performances, or finishing capabilities, this fight is largely a toss-up.
Co-Main · Heavyweightpick'em
ZS
4-0-0
OSM Pick
vs
AD
6-1-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Zaurbek Sabanov.
Zaurbek Sabanov50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 10% Dec 50%
6' 4"
Height
6' 1"
28
Age
-
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both fighters, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. However, without any data on their fighting styles, recent performances, or finishing abilities, this fight is largely a toss-up.
Featherweightpick'em
LB
9-1-0
OSM Pick
vs
IE
7-0-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Luca Borando.
Luca Borando50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
5' 10"
Height
5' 8"
25
Age
30
--
Stance
--
With very limited information available for both fighters, this is a difficult fight to predict. However, without any data on their fighting styles, recent performances, or finishing capabilities, any strong lean is speculative.
W Strawweightpick'em
CR
9-1-0
OSM Pick
vs
AB
7-0-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Camila Reynoso.
Camila Reynoso50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 20% Dec 40%
-
Reach
68"
5' 2"
Height
5' 6"
23
Age
25
--
Stance
--
These factors could allow her to control distance and dictate the striking exchanges. Without further details on their fighting styles or recent performances, it's difficult to predict a more nuanced outcome.
Featherweightpick'em
IB
9-0-0
OSM Pick
vs
EV
17-3-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Ilias Bulaid.
Ilias Bulaid55%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
70.5"
Reach
65.5"
5' 8"
Height
5' 7"
31
Age
29
--
Stance
--
Based on the limited information, Ilias Bulaid holds a notable physical advantage with a 5-inch reach differential and a slight height edge. This reach advantage could be a significant factor in controlling distance and landing strikes. However, without any information on their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing capabilities, it's difficult to make a more definitive prediction.
physical → Bulaid
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Oct 3★ Main Event · W Flyweightlean
NS
20-5-1
OSM Pick
vs
WC
10-1-0
We're aligned with the market: Natalia Silva.
Natalia Silva63%
The books give Natalia Silva ~66% | = their line-3 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Natalia Silva ~56%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 30% Sub 20% Dec 50%
65"
Reach
65.5"
5' 4"
Height
5' 6"
29
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Line: Natalia Silva -205 · Wang Cong +184
📊 OSM is 27-17 on lean calls
Based on the limited information, Wang Cong holds a slight physical advantage in height and reach. However, without details on their recent form, fighting styles, or finishing capabilities, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. The fight is likely to be a competitive one given the lack of clear stylistic or performance edges.
Co-Main · Bantamweightstrong
DF
25-7-1
vs
PT
11-1-0
OSM Pick
We're aligned with the market: Payton Talbott.
Payton Talbott84%
The books give Payton Talbott ~84% | = their line+0.3 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Payton Talbott ~59%
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
68"
Reach
70.5"
5' 5"
Height
5' 10"
38
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Line: Deiveson Figueiredo +505 · Payton Talbott -625
📊 OSM is 54-10 on strong calls
Payton Talbott enters this fight with significant physical advantages in height and reach, coupled with youth and an undefeated record. While Deiveson Figueiredo brings championship experience and a dangerous skill set, Talbott's aggressive style and physical attributes are likely to be a challenging matchup. The stylistic clash favors Talbott's ability to control distance and land powerful strike
physical → Talbottstyle → Talbottform → Talbottfinishing → Talbottcontext → Figueiredo
Lightweightpick'em
KG
36-17-1
OSM Pick
vs
ER
16-3-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans King Green.
King Green51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: King Green ~50% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
71"
Reach
69"
5' 10"
Height
5' 10"
39
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With limited information available, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. The most discernible factor is the age difference, which significantly favors Ribovics. However, Green's slight reach advantage could play a role if he utilizes it effectively.
Welterweightpick'em
RS
21-4-0
vs
KW
16-5-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Khaos Williams.
Khaos Williams52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
73"
Reach
77"
5' 11"
Height
6' 0"
31
Age
32
--
Stance
Orthodox
This fight pits two powerful strikers against each other. While Soldic has a reputation as a finisher, Williams holds significant physical advantages in reach and height. Soldic's move up to middleweight is a notable factor that could impact his performance against a natural welterweight like Williams.
physical → Williamsfinishing → Soldić
Middleweightlean
RK
15-5-0
vs
AG
11-1-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Ateba Gautier.
Ateba Gautier63%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Ateba Gautier ~56% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 10% Dec 50%
75"
Reach
81"
6' 0"
Height
6' 4"
34
Age
24
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
📊 OSM is 27-17 on lean calls
Based purely on the tale of the tape, Ateba Gautier holds a significant physical advantage over Roman Kopylov, particularly in height, reach, and age. This could allow Gautier to control the distance and leverage his youth. However, with no information on recent form, finishing abilities, or fight styles beyond stance, this is a highly speculative pick.
physical → Gautierstyle → Gautier
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Oct 10★ Main Event · Middleweightlean
BA
27-7-0
OSM Pick
vs
CL
15-2-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Brendan Allen.
Brendan Allen69%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Brendan Allen ~57% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 55% Dec 20%
75"
Reach
79"
6' 2"
Height
6' 2"
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
📊 OSM is 27-17 on lean calls
Brendan Allen enters this fight with significant momentum and a clear grappling advantage that should dictate the pace. Look for Allen to weather early striking and eventually take the fight to the ground.
form → Allenstyle → Allenfinishing → Allencontext → Allensentiment → Allenphysical → Duncan
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Oct 17★ Main Event · Welterweightpick'em
MM
14-2-1
OSM Pick
vs
JB
21-8-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Mike Malott.
Mike Malott53%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mike Malott ~57% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 15% Dec 40%
73"
Reach
76"
6' 1"
Height
5' 10"
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
This fight presents an interesting stylistic clash, with Joaquin Buckley's southpaw stance and significant reach advantage likely playing a key role. While Malott has a height advantage, Buckley's longer arms could allow him to dictate the range and land his powerful strikes. Without more information on their recent form or finishing capabilities, it's difficult to make a strong prediction, but Bu
physical → Buckleystyle → Buckley
Co-Main · W Flyweightslight
EB
14-2-0
OSM Pick
vs
JJ
15-4-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Erin Blanchfield.
Erin Blanchfield61%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Erin Blanchfield ~49% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 20% Sub 50% Dec 30%
66"
Reach
68"
5' 4"
Height
5' 7"
27
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Erin Blanchfield enters this fight with significant momentum, boasting an undefeated UFC record and a reputation as an elite grappler. Her youth and finishing ability, particularly on the ground, give her a clear edge over the older and less dynamic Jasmine Jasudavicius. While Jasudavicius is durable, Blanchfield's relentless pressure and superior jiu-jitsu should lead to a dominant performance.
form → Blanchfieldstyle → Blanchfieldfinishing → Blanchfieldphysical → Blanchfieldcontext → Blanchfieldsentiment → Blanchfield
Middleweightslight
KD
16-5-0
OSM Pick
vs
MB
17-11-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Kyle Daukaus.
Kyle Daukaus57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kyle Daukaus ~56% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
76"
Reach
74"
6' 2"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Based on the limited information, Kyle Daukaus holds a minor physical advantage with a slight edge in height, reach, and age. However, without any data on their recent form, fighting styles, or finishing capabilities, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. The fight is essentially a toss-up given the lack of specific details.
physical → Daukaus
Bantamweightpick'em
LJ
9-3-0
OSM Pick
vs
TC
10-4-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Louis Jourdain.
Louis Jourdain51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Louis Jourdain ~51% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 20% Dec 45%
69"
Reach
71"
5' 9"
Height
5' 9"
29
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information available for both fighters, it's challenging to make a strong prediction. The only discernible physical advantage lies with Timmy Cuamba due to his reach. Without knowing their fighting styles, recent form, or finishing capabilities, this fight is largely a toss-up.
Lightweightslight
NL
18-8-0
vs
MN
14-4-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Mandel Nallo.
Mandel Nallo58%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Mandel Nallo ~54% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 40% Sub 20% Dec 40%
72"
Reach
75"
5' 9"
Height
6' 0"
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mandel Nallo appears to have a notable physical advantage over Nate Landwehr, particularly in height and reach, which could dictate the striking exchanges. Landwehr's aggressive style might struggle to close the distance effectively against a longer opponent. The weight class change for Nallo from Lightweight to Featherweight could also play a role, potentially giving him a size advantage if he ma
physical → Nallostyle → Nallo
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Oct 24★ Main Event · Featherweightpick'em
AV
28-4-0
vs
ME
20-0-0
OSM Pick
The books call this close. We lean Movsar Evloev.
Movsar Evloev53%
The books give Movsar Evloev ~50% | = their line+2.8 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Movsar Evloev ~63%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
71.5"
Reach
72.5"
5' 6"
Height
5' 7"
37
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Alexander Volkanovski -108 · Movsar Evloev -107
This fight presents an interesting dynamic with the experienced champion Volkanovski facing a highly confident challenger in Evloev. While Evloev holds slight physical advantages and strong self-belief, Volkanovski's extensive championship experience in high-stakes bouts should not be underestimated. The outcome will likely hinge on whether Evloev's confidence translates into effective execution a
context → Volkanovski
Co-Main · Bantamweightpick'em
MD
21-5-0
OSM Pick
vs
PY
20-5-0
The books favor the other guy. Our model says Merab Dvalishvili.
Merab Dvalishvili52%
The books give Merab Dvalishvili ~39% | = their line+13.7 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Merab Dvalishvili ~59%
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 20% Sub 10% Dec 70%
68"
Reach
67"
5' 6"
Height
5' 7"
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Line: Merab Dvalishvili +153 · Petr Yan -172
Merab Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and wrestling-heavy attack will be a significant challenge for Petr Yan. While Yan possesses superior striking and championship experience, Dvalishvili's incredible cardio and ability to control fights on the ground could lead him to a hard-fought decision victory.
form → Dvalishvilistyle → Dvalishvilifinishing → Yanphysical → Dvalishvili
Flyweightpick'em
RT
20-3-0
vs
LK
10-2-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Lone'er Kavanagh.
Lone'er Kavanagh50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Lone'er Kavanagh ~48% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 20% Dec 45%
63"
Reach
67"
5' 4"
Height
5' 6"
29
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With limited information available, the most discernible factor is Lone'er Kavanagh's physical advantages in reach and height. These attributes could allow him to control the striking distance and potentially frustrate Temirov. Without further details on their fighting styles or recent performances, it's difficult to predict a definitive outcome, but Kavanagh's physical frame gives him a slight ed
physical → Kavanagh
Featherweightpick'em
AA
21-4-0
vs
AP
14-5-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Aaron Pico.
Aaron Pico52%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Aaron Pico ~52% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
70"
Reach
70.5"
5' 8"
Height
5' 8"
32
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
With no recent fight data or stylistic information, it's impossible to make a confident prediction. The physical attributes are nearly identical, with Pico holding a negligible reach advantage. This fight is a complete unknown based on the provided information.
Light Heavyweightpick'em
AM
16-1-0
vs
DR
16-5-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Dominick Reyes.
Dominick Reyes51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Dominick Reyes ~47% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 40% Sub 10% Dec 50%
71.5"
Reach
77"
5' 10"
Height
6' 4"
37
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Dominick Reyes holds a significant physical advantage in height and reach, which could allow him to control the distance and pick apart Murzakanov. However, Murzakanov's aggressive style and potential wrestling could pose problems if he can close the gap. Reyes' experience in high-stakes fights also gives him a slight edge in context.
physical → Reyesstyle → Murzakanovcontext → Reyes
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Oct 31★ Main Event · Lightweightpick'em
RM
21-7-1
OSM Pick
vs
TN
11-1-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Renato Moicano.
Renato Moicano51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Renato Moicano ~48% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 35% Sub 40% Dec 25%
72"
Reach
73"
5' 11"
Height
6' 3"
37
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Renato Moicano's well-rounded skill set, particularly his grappling and striking combination, gives him a significant stylistic edge over Tom Nolan. While Nolan possesses physical advantages in height, reach, and age, Moicano's experience and diverse offensive tools are likely to be the deciding factors. The lack of information on recent form and finishing capabilities makes a definitive predictio
style → Moicanophysical → Nolan
Co-Main · W Flyweightpick'em
TL
7-4-0
OSM Pick
vs
LS
1-0-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Tainara Lisboa.
Tainara Lisboa50%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 40% Sub 30% Dec 30%
67"
Reach
-
5' 7"
Height
5' 7"
35
Age
-
Orthodox
Stance
--
With very limited information available, it's difficult to make a strong prediction. However, the most significant known factor is the weight class difference, with Lisboa being a Bantamweight and Szabova a Flyweight.
Middleweightslight
JK
9-3-0
OSM Pick
vs
NK
6-3-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Joe Kropschot.
Joe Kropschot57%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Joe Kropschot ~57% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 33% Sub 33% Dec 34%
79"
Reach
77"
6' 3"
Height
6' 1"
31
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
With very limited information on both Joe Kropschot and Nick Klein, this fight is a complete toss-up. The only discernible physical difference is Klein's reach advantage, but without knowing their fighting styles or past performances, it's impossible to make a confident prediction.
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Nov 7★ Main Event · Welterweightpick'em
SB
19-2-0
OSM Pick
vs
GB
20-1-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Sean Brady.
Sean Brady54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Sean Brady ~42% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 25% Sub 45% Dec 30%
72"
Reach
72.5"
5' 10"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sean Brady's elite grappling and relentless pressure present a difficult challenge for Gabriel Bonfim, who has shown susceptibility to wrestling. While Bonfim possesses dangerous striking, Brady's ability to control the fight on the ground should lead him to a dominant victory. Look for Brady to secure takedowns and work towards a submission or ground and pound finish.
style → Bradyform → Bradyfinishing → Bradycontext → Brady
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Nov 14★ Main Event · Heavyweightlean
JH
10-0-0
vs
CG
14-2-0
OSM Pick
We're aligned with the market: Ciryl Gane.
Ciryl Gane71%
The books give Ciryl Gane ~69% | = their line+2.2 pt edge
🧮 Skill model: Ciryl Gane ~45%
How it endsMost likely: R3
KO/TKO 55% Sub 10% Dec 35%
73.5"
Reach
81"
6' 1"
Height
6' 4"
28
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Line: Josh Hokit +210 · Ciryl Gane -250
📊 OSM is 27-17 on lean calls
Ciryl Gane appears to have significant physical advantages, particularly in reach and height, which will allow him to dictate the striking exchanges. His proven championship experience against elite competition also gives him a substantial edge over Hokit, whose specific fighting style and experience at this level are not detailed. While Hokit has some backing for a title shot, Gane's established
physical → Ganestyle → Ganecontext → Ganefinishing → Ganesentiment → Gane
Co-Main · W Bantamweightpick'em
AN
23-5-0
OSM Pick
vs
KH
19-1-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Amanda Nunes.
Amanda Nunes54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Amanda Nunes ~44% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 45% Sub 25% Dec 30%
69"
Reach
66"
5' 8"
Height
5' 8"
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
This is a fascinating clash of styles between two dominant forces. Nunes' striking power and championship pedigree give her a slight edge, particularly with her reach advantage. However, Harrison's elite grappling could present a unique challenge if she can get the fight to the ground.
style → Nunescontext → Nunesphysical → Nunesfinishing → Nunes
Middleweightpick'em
CB
18-2-0
vs
YB
11-3-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Yousri Belgaroui.
Yousri Belgaroui51%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Yousri Belgaroui ~46% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 15% Dec 50%
75"
Reach
79"
6' 1"
Height
6' 6"
33
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
This fight presents a significant physical challenge for Caio Borralho, who will be giving up considerable height and reach to Yousri Belgaroui. While Borralho's southpaw stance could offer some stylistic advantages, the sheer physical disparity makes it difficult to favor him without more information on their respective skill sets and recent performances. The lack of data on their form, finishing
physical → Belgaroui
Welterweightpick'em
KH
29-15-0
OSM Pick
vs
UM
14-3-0
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Kevin Holland.
Kevin Holland54%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Kevin Holland ~43% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsMost likely: R2
KO/TKO 55% Sub 15% Dec 30%
81"
Reach
71"
6' 3"
Height
6' 1"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Kevin Holland holds a significant physical advantage over Uroš Medić, particularly in reach and height, which should allow him to dictate the striking exchanges. His orthodox stance against Medić's southpaw could further amplify this stylistic edge, making it difficult for Medić to close the distance and land effectively. However, without information on their recent form, finishing abilities, or a
physical → Hollandstyle → Holland
Flyweightlean
LG
11-4-0
vs
BH
10-0-0
OSM Pick
No betting line posted yet, our model leans Bilal Hasan.
Bilal Hasan66%
Model estimate · no betting line posted yet
🧮 Skill model: Bilal Hasan ~61% (sets our baseline, no line yet)
How it endsLikely decision
KO/TKO 35% Sub 25% Dec 40%
64"
Reach
70"
5' 5"
Height
5' 7"
32
Age
25
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
📊 OSM is 27-17 on lean calls
Based on the limited information, Bilal Hasan appears to have a significant physical advantage with his height, reach, and youth. These attributes could allow him to dictate the range and pace of the fight, making it difficult for Gurule to close the distance effectively. Without further information on their skills or recent performances, the physical disparity is the most prominent factor.
physical → Hasanstyle → Hasan
How the model works
We treat the betting line as the starting point, because the crowd already prices most of the signal, then adjust it with seven scouting factors (form, style, physical, finishing, activity, context, sentiment), each grounded in the real tale of the tape and weighted by how confident we are it matters here. We cap how far we can drift from the market, so a pick is never a wild swing. When our number meaningfully beats the line, we flag it a value pick. For upcoming UFC cards we call the whole main card, even before the books post a line.
Every pick is logged and auto-graded against the result, so the record above is honest, fight by fight, including how we stack up against the betting line.
Common questions
Straight answers, from the same numbers as the cards above.
How accurate is the Open Scoring MMA prediction model?
The model's public record is 81-27 (75% of picks correct) across 108 graded fights, against 76% for the betting favourite over the same fights. Every pick is logged before the fight and graded from the official result, win or lose.
Who is favoured in Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Raul Rosas Jr. the pick at about 66% to win. Rosas Jr. is significantly younger (21 vs 39) and has a slight height advantage. Barcelos' age is a major concern. Rosas Jr. is a high-pressure grappler, which could pose problems for Barcelos, who has shown vulnerabilities to wrestling.
Who is favoured in Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Brendan Allen the pick at about 69% to win. Allen is on a 6-fight win streak, including wins over top contenders. Duncan has a 3-1 UFC record, but against less established competition. Allen is a high-level grappler with good striking. Duncan is primarily a striker with good athleticism. Allen's grappling could be a significant advantage.
Who is favoured in Josh Hokit vs Ciryl Gane?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Ciryl Gane the pick at about 71% to win. The betting line implies about 69%, so we are higher than the market. Gane has a substantial 3-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage. He is also 8 years older, which could be a slight negative, but the reach/height are more impactful in heavyweight. Gane's significant reach advantage (7.5 inches) and height advantage (3 inches) suggest he can control distance effectively against Hokit, who is also Orthodox.
Who is favoured in Mike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Mike Malott the pick at about 53% to win. Buckley has a 3-inch reach advantage despite being 3 inches shorter, which is a notable physical edge. Both are in their early to mid-30s, so age isn't a factor. Buckley's southpaw stance combined with a significant reach advantage could pose problems for Malott, allowing him to control distance and angles.
Who is favoured in Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Movsar Evloev the pick at about 53% to win. The betting line implies about 50%, so we are higher than the market. This is Evloev's first title shot against a 'legitimate legend' (Volkanovski), suggesting Volkanovski has significant championship experience and big-fight composure.
Who is favoured in Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Renato Moicano the pick at about 51% to win. Moicano is described as a strong grappler with legit striking, which often poses problems for pure strikers. Nolan is significantly taller (4 inches) and has a slight reach advantage (1 inch). He is also 11 years younger, which is a considerable age gap at lightweight.
Who is favoured in Sean Brady vs Gabriel Bonfim?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Sean Brady the pick at about 54% to win. Brady is a high-level grappler with relentless pressure and strong wrestling. Bonfim is a dangerous striker but has shown vulnerabilities to grappling, which plays directly into Brady's strengths. Brady is coming off a dominant win, while Bonfim's last fight was a quick KO loss. Brady's overall record is more established against higher-level competition.
Who is favoured in Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott?
Open Scoring MMA's model makes Payton Talbott the pick at about 84% to win. The betting line implies about 84%, so we are higher than the market. Talbott has a significant height (5 inches) and reach (2.5 inches) advantage, along with being 11 years younger. This is a substantial physical disparity. Talbott's longer reach and switch stance could pose problems for Figueiredo, who often relies on closing distance.
Picks updated 2026-09-23T11:01:21Z. Catch every upcoming card on the Fight Tracker. Not betting advice, for entertainment.